Most people quietly agree that for Brand advertisers still focused on brand awareness and impressions, the networks are a fine place to buy “long tail” inventory. Its a cheaper place to buy and often times its easier to buy from the networks vs individual sites. However, while the movement to network buying helps advertisers and agencies, it kills publishers. Networks turn non-premium inventory into fungible goods. This obviously hurts pricing for these publishers.

Publishers have rushed to networks to sell out inventory so they can continue to keep the lights on (and further their reliance in the CPM model). The problem for publishers is that the CPM model wont work on the web any longer…its dated and there is no scarcity on the web to maintain pricing levels that publisher seek to keep. This sets off the need to eventually change up how these publishers get compensated for their ads.

Eventually these publishers will turn to performance based pricing (CPA, Revshare, CPL, PPC, etc). This will in turn hurt the relevance of the 300+ networks. Eventually, publishers will only use the networks for an even smaller percentage of ’spot market’ remnant display inventory. There simply wont be enough inventory for all of these networks.

Further, as the remaining CPM products continue to be treated as fungible and less inventory exists for impression based pricing, networks will conslidate. Look to the more mature financial markets for what will happen. Once goods are fungible, better regulated and mature, the big networks (exchanges) get more powerful. Today we have two winners in ths country for equities, the NASD and the NYSE.

Eventually, I feel this will be the case for CPM based display ads. There will be one or two major networks for all CPM inventory that publishers dont want to price on a performance basis.

So who do you think the winners will be?

Not that we need more bureaucracy in this fine city, but this ugliness needs to go away to make the city more attractive and more livable for those of us who pay taxes here.

Here’s why:

The impression pricing model (CPMs) depends on scarcity (of channels, pages, broadcast spectrum). The internet destroys the CPM model assumptions as new content comes online each day, thus destroying scarcity in the CPM model. Inventory on the web is infinite, so non-premium inventory will price lower. While more content (ad inventory) comes online, attention remains FINITE. Any single blogger now competes with the likes of the NYT or WSJ. Performance pricing and direct response will in the end rule the web media buy.

Also, while this is occurring, publishers are self cannibalizing pricing by using ad networks that reduce their inventory to fungible goods.

The outlook seems bleak for the firms that depend on impression based pricing. Digg is a great example of how massive amounts of new inventory can hit the market quickly. Digg instantly competes with their dugg destination posts. Look for more moves like yesterday’s Yahoo’s APT accommodation of performance pricing and look for the other quality performance networks to realize more revenue.

“If you have the model and the means to get through an economic contraction with growth, don’t sell now…  keep your head down, execute and grow. On the other side of the contraction, your business will be worth MUCH more”

Also, Jason Calacanis, a serial successful entrepreneur opined recently (paraphrased) on TWIT that the best time to make a move in this market is during a contraction because you have less competition. If you are executing, you’ll grab more market share, you will be a more valuable property, and attract better talent. Jason speaks from experience…he has started businesses in downturns.

The trends look good for online media: there is a flight to more measurable and agile online media because online media consumption time is increasing its share of the (finite) user media consumption pie. Also, the dollars that leave radio, TV and Print will move into the online space to gain on the 20% user consumption time of online media.

Smart marketers are slowly levering up the ~7% of thier budgets in online media to get closer to matching the 20% number. They also know that the trackabilty and ROI equation works in their favor, as they can deliver faster, more direct and meaningful results with online media (especially as performance-based pricing becomes more popular).

In the end the “wheat will be seperated from the chafe”, but the firms with focus and resources to capitalize on the opportunity a contraction presents will come through a downturn stronger and more resilient.

Is it me or does this product android shot from Uncle Walt’s blog look suspiciously like a Microsoft IE browser? It looks like someone, (not Google) hacked something up and used a windows browser.

If T-Mobile did this screen shot, they are off to a rocky start with the Goog!

I know why the city and it’s vendors thinks it’s OK to use the sidewalk as their canvas. They need it to be clear where and where not to drill, build, etc.

I get the utility of it. But as someone who appreciates the city and the urban landscape, this seems like overkill. There must be a more aesthetically sensitive way to mark sidewalks.

I’d like to see the use of technology to solve these problems. Maybe a maps mashup that allows all utilities to mark streets?

Anyone else think this is an eyesore that needs solving with better design and technology? Its a shame to see this great city reduced to this…

Unifying (or attempting to) public policy regarding the understanding and shaping of issues like traffic shaping, data portability, data privacy, and net neutrality are all very important to maintaining our position as an innovative nation where access and distribution of information and knowledge is an assumed characteristic of being a citizen of this great nation.

Perhaps selfishly, I think the person for this position should have the ability to market theses issues to the public in simple to understand concepts that do not obfuscate the truth of the issue so that the people, not the companies can shape policy.

Your thoughts on the issue?

Wow. If I were a brand manager at Apple, I would not be happy. Seems Orange is paying people to wait in line at their stores to generate false interest in the iPhone.

Jobs & Co will likely respond.  Non-genuine behavior is antithetical to the Apple brand and damages its authenticity. Apple doesn’t have to fake it. If Orange is suffering from lack of demand, it might be that they are overcharging for the wireless plans and people already know about it?

I have officially solved my digital notebook issue.

The need for the notebook comes from the need for a repository for the myriad of details that collect each day that don’t warrant a separate doc, but still have value to later projects or later recall.

I was looking for a solution that would sync among all my devices, provide backup, and to leverage search and tagging so finding the information in the piles of notes was easier.

Prior to trying Evernote, I used a great and flexible app called Mori. Mori is a great app but it lacks the backup and sync functions and has no application for the iPhone. I made the switch because I got tired of syncing up the latest notebook to my other machines.

I have been using Evernote for a few months and it delivers on its promise to help out your short term memory. With the complexities of a small and growing business and a recent marriage, there is a lot of non-document information that needs to be captured, stored and classified for later retrieval. Evernote allows me to do this and access this information intuitively and from any device.

The UI is very simple and intuitive and it allows for simple capture of notes via email, web clipping or photos. The app also allows you to search images for words so that you can identify search returns in your images. An example use case is taking a photo of a wine label, sending it to Evernote, then searching your notebook to have it call up a picture ot the label for a later purchase.

So far the app is a winner with me and I highly recommend registering for the beta and giving it a try. Its fast, flexible and works well on Mac, PC, iPhone and Winmo.

Any other Evernote users out there with some thoughts?

From the journal:  Microsoft Enlists Jerry Seinfeld In Its Ad Battle Against Apple

Perhaps the Bee Movie didn’t do too well and old Jerry’s trying to remain relevant. Don’t get me wrong, I am a big fan of his show…years of laughter from him, George and Kramer.

But this reeks a bit of desperation from both sides.. I hope they pull this off well for both their sake. Granted I am an Apple guy, so I am biased, but if this campaign comes off as defensive or in any way campy, both Seinfeld and MSFT will be the brunt of jokes for years to come.

Having said all that, I am glad MSFT has stepped up to defend Vista, as I believe its their best effort yet and I use it weekly when I have to use a windows box…they have finally paid some attention to design and its paying off, albeit slowly. Further, MSFT should step up and defend themselves, they have built some very good products over the years, though many may not agree with their design approach.

Any Seinfeld or MSFT fans disagree?